a research paper by Chris Wallace and David P Myatt.

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Abstract: In the context of a “beauty contest” coordination game (in which payoffs depend on the proximity of actions to an unobserved state variable and to the average action) players choose how much costly attention to pay to various informative signals; they endogenously select information sources and how carefully to listen to them. Each signal has an underlying accuracy (how precisely it identifies the state variable) and a clarity (how easy it is for players to understand what the signal says). The unique information-acquisition equilibrium has interesting properties: only a subset of signals are assigned positive weight and attention; these are the clearest signals available, even if such signals have poor underlying accuracy; the size of the subset shrinks as the complementarity of players’ actions becomes more acute; and, if actions are more complementary, the information endogenously acquired in equilibrium is more public in nature.

by Torun Dewan and David P Myatt

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Abstract: Followers wish to coordinate their actions in an uncertain environment. A follower would like his action to be close to some ideal (but unknown) target; to reflect his own idiosyncratic preferences; and to be close to the actions of others. He learns about his world by listening to leaders. Followers fail to internalize the full benefits of coordination and so place insufficient emphasis on the focal views of relatively clear leaders. A leader sometimes stands back, by restricting what she says, and so creates space for others to be heard; in particular, a benevolent leader with outstanding judgement gives way to a clearer communicator in an attempt to encourage unity amongst her followers. Sometimes a leader receives no attention from followers, and sometimes she steps down (says nothing); hence a leadership elite emerges from the endogenous choices of leaders and followers.

by Torun Dewan and David P Myatt

• Download the Current Version in PDF Format (from 5 April 2009)
• Also available: Earlier Version in PDF Format (from 28 July 2008)

Resubmitted to the American Journal of Political Science.

Abstract: We consider a government for which success requires high performance by talented ministers. A leader provides incentives to her ministers by firing those who fail. However, the consequent turnover drains a finite talent pool of potential appointees. The severity of the optimal firing rule and ministerial performances decline over time: the lifetime of an effective government is limited. We relate this lifetime to various factors including external shocks; the replenishment of the talent pool; and the leader’s reputation. Some results are surprising: an increase in the stability of government and the exogenous imposition of stricter performance standards can both shorten the era of effective government, and an increase in the replenishment of the talent pool can reduce incumbent ministers’ performance.

by David P Myatt and Chris Wallace.

• Download the Current Version in PDF Format (from 23 March 2009)
• Also available: Earlier Version in PDF Format (from 27 October 2008)

(currently in submission)

Oxford Economics Discussion Paper no. 411.

Abstract: In the context of macroeconomic coordination, studies of the social value of information distinguish sharply between private and public information. However, no information is truly public (that is, common knowledge) or private in the established sense. This paper develops a general approach by allowing for many informative signals each of which incorporates elements of both public and private information. A measure of relative publicity determines a signal’s equilibrium use and its social value. Output gaps (and hence social losses) arise when signals differ in their publicity: such differences drive a wedge between price-formation and expectations-formation processes. Turning to the effect of public announcements, and contrary to previous results, it is never socially optimal to withhold information completely, nor is it optimal to release perfectly public (or, indeed, perfectly private) information. Instead, when perfect communication is feasible, limited clarity enhances macroeconomic performance.

JEL Classifications: C72, D83, and E5.

Chris Wallace and I thank Torun Dewan for detailed discussions, and seminar participants at Essex, Helsinki, and Oxford, for helpful comments and suggestions.